(We are updating the list of Memphis area relief efforts at the bottom so keep checking back for more information)

Sometimes, in the midst of a contentious game or series, it is easy to lose perspective on why we are drawn to sports. They are a microcosm of the human experience, complete with triumph and failure, love and hate, friend and foe. Earlier this month, as the Grizzlies and Thunder were locked in a closely contested playoff [...]]]>

(We are updating the list of Memphis area relief efforts at the bottom so keep checking back for more information)

Sometimes, in the midst of a contentious game or series, it is easy to lose perspective on why we are drawn to sports. They are a microcosm of the human experience, complete with triumph and failure, love and hate, friend and foe. Earlier this month, as the Grizzlies and Thunder were locked in a closely contested playoff series, fans from both sides engaged in (mostly) good-natured trash talk about the opposing team and city. Some people believe that such banter represents all that is wrong with sports and caution against what it brings out in people. I disagree. It merely represents the flip-side of the same coin that brings rivals to the aid of one another in times of tragedy and loss.

The unfortunate events in Oklahoma this week provide confirmation that rivalry brings out the best in people far more than it brings out the worst. Monday night my Twitter feed was littered with dozens of messages from #GrizzNation expressing solidarity with #ThunderNation and the people of Oklahoma. The very fans who were bantering back and forth about who would win a basketball game ten days ago are the ones now asking if everyone was safe and what they can do to help.

Our hearts and prayers go out to families in Oklahoma. You can assist with donation at #redcross.org

— Memphis Grizzlies (@memgrizz) May 21, 2013

Been told by a good friend that two elementary schools in Oklahoma have been leveled by storms. Prayers go out to OK.

— Pete Pranica (@PetePranica) May 20, 2013

Still praying for those in OK….the petty things in life just DON’T matter right about now..

— Shy (@FoxxyShyD) May 21, 2013

I hate seeing the horrific scenes from the last 24 hours near Oklahoma City. Send your thoughts and prayers to the great people of OKC

— Rob Fischer (@thefishnation) May 20, 2013

Man, just awful. Loved talking with and meeting OKC folks just weeks ago and I cannot believe what I’ve seen. My prayers are with them.

— Peter Edmiston (@peteredmiston) May 20, 2013

Sad to hear 20 kids died in Oklahoma. My prayers go out to all families involved.

— Memphis Grind (@MemphisGrind) May 21, 2013

If anyone in #GrizzNation is thinking of getting a volunteer group together to help in OKC, please let me know.

— Nikki Boertman (@PhotoNikki) May 20, 2013

This footage of the tornado damage is awful. Prayers for those involved. Hug your family and friends tonight.

— Amanda Schultz (@ASchultz901) May 20, 2013

I could post #GrizzNation’s tweets all day and never get to them all. You see, the negativity that sometimes comes with rivalry has its roots in something positive. Rivalry is born of pride in yourself and your hometown or home team. It is born of respect for your opponent, if not even a touch of envy. It carries an undertone of mutual understanding and shared experience about what it means to love something bigger than yourself. While these things may not be easy to see during a tense playoff series, they become clear when tragedy strikes.

There may be no greater example of a deeply divisive rivalry than the one between the University of Alabama and Auburn University. The saga between the two is littered with examples of individuals acting irresponsibly in a way that stoked the fire of the rivalry and embarrassed both fan bases. However, the elements that drive those sad and depraved few to act are the same ones that drive tens of thousands to stand in support of one another in the face of devastating tragedy.

On April 27, 2011, an EF-4 tornado struck the heart of Tuscaloosa, Alabama, leaving a trail of destruction and death all the way to Birmingham. The tornado took the lives of sixty-four people and caused $2.2 billion in damage. In the face of this tragedy, Auburn fans immediately began to organize relief efforts for their Alabama brethren. The Auburn football team drove to Tuscaloosa to help in the cleanup efforts. The rivalry that has too often been soured by the irresponsible actions of a few was redeemed by the benevolence of many.

Indeed, rivalry transcends wins and losses. One need only to look at the way the New York Yankees players, organization and team responded to the tragic bombing of the Boston Marathon to be reminded that these rivalries are about more than hate or sports. Similarly, when a gunman took the lives of thirty-two innocent people at Virginia Tech in 2007, the University of Virginia ground to a halt and held a vigil for the fallen. And now, as the full scope of the devastation in Oklahoma is still being measured, the City of Memphis and #GrizzNation stand ready to help.

Oklahoma is full of strong, capable and resilient people who have overcome countless tragedies over the decades. There is little doubt they will RISE UP once again following this tornado. That doesn’t mean that a little help isn’t needed and welcomed. The team at Welcome to Loud City has compiled a wonderful resource of information about the conditions in Oklahoma and instructions about how we can help. Also, here is the link for the American Red Cross and Animal Resources Center of Oklahoma City, two organizations in need of our support. I encourage you all to head to these sites and help in any way you can. Also, if you are organizing any relief efforts and/or collection drives here in Memphis, please let us know so that we can help publicize them.

Some things transcend sports, offering a perspective we wish we never needed. In these tragic moments are opportunities for those of us fortunate enough to be unaffected to stand up and offer a helping hand. These are opportunities to showcase the better side of rivalry.

Pray for Oklahoma, Memphis.

@jmay11

MEMPHIS AREA RELIEF EFFORTS - 

• Newby’s on the Highland Strip will be collecting items to send to OKC from 3pm to 3am on Tuesday, May 21, 2013 – details are on the Newby’s Facebook page. Among items they are collecting: Diapers, Baby Wipes, Formula, Bottled Water, Gatorde, Hand Towels, Individually wrapped snacks, Work Gloves (no clothing). ​
• Flying Saucer is collecting money for the Red Cross efforts in OKC. You can get more information on the Flying Saucer facebook page. 
• WMC-TV5 said provided the following: To donate to the Red Cross to help the Oklahoma storm victims – call 866-9629467. To donate $10, text REDCROSS to 90999​.

This was post originally published by @jmay11 at GrizzGrind.com.

Overtime. Whoof.

Well, seven things (and more) did happen, let’s look at it.

Thing one: Never thought I’d see Tony Allen writhing in pain selling a foul…

Thing two:  Moral, schmoral. This was a loss, and it stings just as much as the first game, if not worse. To not [...]]]>

Even a team like the Grizzlies can’t dig holes like a 46-31 halftime deficit and expect to get out, even with the much-improved second half they played in game two.

Overtime. Whoof.

Well, seven things (and more) did happen, let’s look at it.

Thing one: Never thought I’d see Tony Allen writhing in pain selling a foul…

Thing two:  Moral, schmoral. This was a loss, and it stings just as much as the first game, if not worse. To not have your defense wake up until the fourth quarter (held the Spurs to nine points, and two over the last EIGHT MINUTES OF THE QUARTER) when defense is the professed and proven calling card of the team is not something that can be overcome. The necessity of a 15-2 run to close the game and send it to OT means that there will be some very tired legs in the extra period.

Thing three: The hustle game. The Grizzlies won it again. Steals 9-5. Rebounds 60-46 (!!!). Turnovers 10-13. These stats are perhaps the most encouraging things that can be taken from such a dire loss. If the Grizzlies can put forth similar effort in these aspects of the game at home, they should be able to tie the series on Memorial Day. Most importantly among the contributors to these stats, especially the rebounding…

Thing four: HEY ZACH! NICE TO SEE YOU! WELCOME TO THE SERIES! What ZBo did in the second half was tremendous on its own, but the energy he showed and the example he set for his teammates inspired the whole of the Grizzlies to come back from 13 down with eight minutes to go. 15 and 18 is a more Randolph-esque line…but six of eighteen from the field and a much-more-damaging 3-8 from the line were likely the Grizzlies’ downfall in the game. His positioning got better, his hustle on the boards was better, and his body language improved as the game went on…but to beat a team like the Spurs, he’s got to get to full ZBo mud level. Didn’t happen, although this game was enough to make one think that it might at least be possible.

Thing five: Tayshaun Prince. He’s the championship-level vet that Rudy Gay is not, but with a bum hip and some other nagging ailments, he’s just not been himself, to the point that Hollins only played him 16 minutes. Will Hollins change the starting lineup, or will he want to reserve Pondexter as an energy and shooting infusion off the bench?

Thing six: Speaking of Pondexter, the bench didn’t make  me want to vomit! HOORAY!! Actually, I lied. They sorta did. Wroten did enough damage in his three minutes to make me hurl the lentils I had for dinner. Arthur was his playoff-standard wheres-my-2011-DA self with an uninspiring 2-6 with a big fat unforgivable ZERO in the rebound column. Of course, Arthur has never been an inside banger kind of player, and his perimeter D and vertical recovering ability has been valuable-but none? It wasn’t that he wasn’t in position to get some things done, as he managed to commit four fouls in that short window. But the largest motion sickness bag must be reserved for…

Thing seven: WHY, JERRYD, WHY???? There was ETERNITY on the clock! That play was just, well, not good. Can’t believe that Hollins wanted it done that way, and reading Hollins’ lips after the play told the story. And this was NOT a story that I’ll be telling to my four-year-old son, unless I want him to grow up talking like an extra-angry Dirty Harry Callahan. The fact that Bayless obviously went WAY outside of the box speaks a large volume about the Grizzlies v. the Spurs as far as this level of NBA ball, and if plays like this continue to mount, it will be that much harder for the Grizzlies to have a chance of taking the series.

Could  this turn out like the Clippers series? Frustrate Duncan again, and keep Parker from going quite so nuclear…maybe…..

Memphis kicked off the series on the right foot with a Marc Gasol layup to put them up 2-0 with their first [...]]]>

Who: Memphis Grizzlies vs San Antonio Spurs
When: Tuesday, May 21, 8:00 PM CST
Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
Series Standing: Memphis trails 0-1
Media: ESPN, 92.9 FM, 680 AM
Forums: 3 Shades of Blue, Grizzlies Message Board
Opposing Views: 48 Minutes of Hell

Memphis kicked off the series on the right foot with a Marc Gasol layup to put them up 2-0 with their first possession. However, that was the first and only point at which the Grizzlies led all game. They had their Grit n’ Grind defense sliced and diced by the Spurs, and were incapable of answering back with some spark of their own on the other end of the court. The ol’ reliable starting front court of the Grizz which gave the team an average of 38 points and 17 rebounds throughout the playoffs thus far combined for a meager 17 points and 14 boards in the first game this series, which is not going to do the trick. The Grizzlies became far too reliant on the long two point shot to run an efficient offense, which sputtered out a 43% shooting performance, contributing to a day in which they were outscored by 22 points.

San Antonio made a killing in Game one, rendering the usually very stingy Grizzlies defense quite vulnerable in a manner akin to what few other teams have done this season. The Spurs drew and toyed with the help defense of the Grizz for the entirety of the afternoon on Sunday. They were masterfully able to anticipate when and where the help would be coming from, and thus manipulated the Grizzlies into giving up uncontested looks all game. It was glaringly evident that Coach Popovich did his homework and had his team prepped for this series. The Spurs, who led the league this year with 25.1 assisted baskets per game, finished Game One with 28 assists on 40 field goals, which meant a lot of clean sightlines to the basket. This is further evidenced by the fact that they sank 14 from the arc, on 48%, and completed the game at 52% from the floor as a whole.

For individual matchup analyses, check out the Series Post

Analysis:

- Spacing, spacing, spacing. San Antonio looked like a team that just came off of a six game series with Golden State. To be honest, at times I felt like I was watching the Grizzlies play Golden State. The Spurs too can stretch the floor as well as anybody in this league, and were not shy to put it on display in Game One. The Grizzlies defense got caught with its pants down, so to speak, for the majority of Sunday’s game. They were guilty of over-helping on the ball, and as a result the Spurs were able to swing it to their open gunners with ridiculous precision, oftentimes drawing the Grizz so far out of position that the shooter did not even have to worry about a closeout. The outcome? Matt Bonner, Danny Green, and Kawhi Leonard were not only able to light up the scoreboard, but moreover able to do so without setting foot outside of their comfort zones. The Grizzlies need to either do a better job of cutting off the ball at the point of attack with the help that they send, or staying at home on their man, because you cannot have it half way… unless you enjoy giving up open looks, that is.

- Quincy Pondexter looked like he would have fit in well on the Spurs, as he’s been the only Grizzlies role player to show up on both ends of the floor with any shade of regularity in the playoffs. He was the leading scorer for the boys in blue, with 17 points on a very respectable 5-9 shooting from the land of plenty. Pondexter has had some ups and downs this season, at least due in part to the recovery process regarding his knee injury, but he has definitely earned his keep on this roster. If he has another performance like this one with the rest of this team remotely resembling Grizzlies basketball, it would be a dangerously effective contribution.

- Marc Gasol and Mike Conley seemed determined to bring the Grizzlies back into the game at the end of the first half. Conley did a very good job of weaving his way in and out of the paint in game one, but could not seem to mount the aggression to catalyze much offensive rhythm for the team as a whole. He did a good job of distributing, with 8 assists, and managed to put a decent number of points on the board, but outside of Gasol, the others could not really get it going. Gasol had a relatively sound individual offensive game as well, but made most of his noise on outside shots. He also only dished out 2 assists for the game. The two of them need to get going in Game Two, but the team as a whole will need to respond when they do.

- Zach Randolph had a very quiet outing in Game One. He got beat up on the offensive end, as the Spurs did an excellent job of packing the paint on him, and taking him out of his game. On numerous occasions we saw Z-bo try and engage the defender in contact, to which Tim Duncan simply said “no thanks.” Zach thrives on the contact that he creates, and uses it to ground himself, so when Duncan would back off, he found himself off-balance and out of sync. We saw Marc masterfully use this defensive tactic on Blake Griffin in the first round. Additionally, Z-bo had a rough time getting possession of the ball in good position. He was unable to use the contact to pin his man below the basket, and consequently had to try to get his offense going from the outside-in, which is definitely not the preferred strategy for him. His first points came on a “Z-bound” tip in, in the fourth quarter, which is an unacceptable circumstance if the Grizzlies stand any chance of winning. He started out slow early on in the Clipper series as well, but will need to snap out of it much earlier against the Spurs, who are a more poised veteran team that will not be caught off guard as easily.

- I’ve stopped myself time and time again, and bit my tongue saying anything to criticize coaching decisions, but I’m not sure what Ed Davis has to do to get a chance to prove himself in the playoffs. It is certainly not the issue of the matter that Darrell Arthur has done much to strongarm him out of the competition. Arthur failed to make any kind of difference on Bonner, defensively, and I would have to imagine that Davis’s opportunity in garbage time may have served as a secret audition to some degree. He should definitely spend the summer working on going over his other shoulder in the post.

Some Final Musings:

- Jerryd Bayless’s 8 point, 4 rebound 5 assist, 0 turnover performance is one that I’d guess Lionel Hollins would take any day, and his steal-fastbreak-slam combo was the last ray of hope in Game One.

- Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili scored a combined 14 points on 5-15 shooting, and the Spurs still blew the Grizzlies out. Memphis picked its poison, and the San Antonio role players lived up to the challenges.

- To put the 3-point differential into perspective, the Spurs had six players sink a shot from deep as they poured in 42 points from downtown. Memphis landed 15, all off of Pondexter’s fingertips.

Before the playoffs began we discussed with Dave the Grizzlies prospects against the Los Angeles Clippers.  His perspective was that the Grizzlies, while a very talented team, didn’t have a good chance against [...]]]>

Over the years, the writers of 3 Shades of Blue have developed an unique relationship with the renowned author, economist and college professor Dave Berri. His books, Wages of Wins and Stumbling on Wins, helped take statistics from the classroom to the front offices of the NBA.

Before the playoffs began we discussed with Dave the Grizzlies prospects against the Los Angeles Clippers.  His perspective was that the Grizzlies, while a very talented team, didn’t have a good chance against the Clippers. Obviously, this turned out to be a bit premature. During the Thunder series we approached Berri again to help understand what was happening with the Grizzlies. With exams and projects filling Berri’s time as well as ours, we couldn’t get together. 

However, Berri didn’t forget the questions. With a small break between activities Berri was kind enough to tell us his thoughts on the Grizzlies playoff run so far and how things look going forward. 

So in his own words, here is Dave Berri’s view of the upcoming Grizzlies-Spurs series. Special thanks to 3SOB contributor CarlCR for formatting the information tables below.

Dave Berri: Let me start with something we said in The Wages of Wins (and should have said a few weeks ago):

Playoffs are for fun, not for science!

A few years ago, I illustrated this point by quoting the following from

The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow.  This wonderful book contains the following passage relevant to any discussion of predicting the winner in a best-of-seven playoff series.

“…if one team is good enough to warrant beating another in 55% of its games, the weaker team will nevertheless win a 7-game series about 4 times out of 10.  And if the superior team could beat its opponent, on average, 2 out of 3 times they meet, the inferior team will still win a 7-game series about once every 5 match-ups.  There is really no way for a sports league to change this.  In the lopsided 2/3-probability case, for example, you’d have to play a series consisting of at minimum the best of 23 games to determine the winner with what is called statistical significance, meaning the weaker team would be crowned champion 5 percent or less of the time.  And in the case of one team’s having only a 55-45 edge, the shortest significant “world series” would be the best of 269 games, a tedious endeavor indeed! So sports playoff series can be fun and exciting, but being crowned “world champion” is not a reliable indication that a team is actually the best one.” (p. 70-71).

This quote should be remembered by everyone who tries and forecast the playoffs.  The samples are so small that it should not surprise us when “upsets” occur.

When it comes to basketball, a related issue should be kept in mind.  Players tend to be very consistent in basketball over time.  But over small samples, there can be quite a bit of variation.   Consider Andrew Bogut of the Golden State Warriors.  From the last game of Golden State’s first round series against the Nuggets through the first four games in the second round against the Spurs, Bogut grabbed 77 rebounds in 159 minutes.  In Bogut’s other seven playoff games, though, he only grabbed 54 rebounds in 166 minutes (a per-minute rate quite close to his 2012-13 regular season performance).

So across five games, Bogut was apparently transformed from a “good” rebounder into essentially Dennis Rodman.

Then there is the game Klay Thompson played against the Spurs on May 8^th.   He scored 34 points on just 26 shots.  Plus he added 14 rebounds and 3 steals.  Such a performance exceeds what you would have typically seen by Michael Jordan.  And is vastly different from what Thompson has done across his career to date.

And then there is Stephen Curry.  As the following table illustrates, Curry was quite productive in the regular season, leading the Warriors in Wins Produced (numbers taken from theNBAgeek.com). In the first round, Curry was also quite productive, again leading Golden State in Wins Produced.

But in the second round against the Spurs, Curry was quite a bit below average (average Wins Produced per 48 – or WP48 – is 0.100).

It is tempting to try and explain all of these changes in performance.  But again, although performance of NBA players tends to be consistent over time, performance from game-to-game – and series-to-series – can be quite different from what see across an entire season.

With that in mind, let me offer a few comments on what we have seen in the playoff thus far (this discussion is restricted to just the part of the playoffs relevant to the Grizzlies).

The First Round

Before the playoff began you asked me to predict the outcome of the Grizzlies’ first round series; and I noted that since the Clippers were “better” in the regular season the Clippers should be expected to win.  Obviously that didn’t happen.  To understand why, let’s look at what the Clippers players did in the regular season and the first round (playoff numbers provided by Arturo Galletti).

Before the series started I noted that Mike Conley was very good.  But Chris Paul was better.  And in the first round we saw that Conley was very good (all the Grizzlies numbers will be presented and discussed below).  Again, an average player posts a WP48 of 0.100.  Conley’s mark of 0.224 was more than twice as good as an average player.

But as one can see, Paul was indeed a bit better (with a mark of 0.280).  Paul, though, didn’t quite get the help Conley got from his teammates.  Matt Barnes and Eric Bledsoe were both quite productive in the regular season and the first round.  But Blake Griffin – who was very productive in the regular season — was awful against the Grizzlies.  And DeAndre Jordan – who was also well above average in the regular season – was also very unproductive.

Again, I emphasize.  The sample size is only six games.  If we played these games again – and everyone was healthy (remember, Griffin got hurt) – the outcome could be different.  Remember, Griffin and Jordan are generally above average players.  But across a small sample, even above average players can play quite poorly (especially when injuries are part of the story).

Second Round

The big story in the second round was the Thunder’s loss of Russell Westbrook.

During the regular season, the Thunder were led in Wins Produced by Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Thabo Sefolosha, and Russell Westbrook (in that order).

So Westbrook was an above average point guard, but not as productive as Mike Conley (who posted a 0.195 WP48 in the regular season).

In the first round it appeared the Thunder struggled without Westbrook.  And it appears those struggles continued in the second round.  So is Westbrook the key?

Devin Dignam – at the Wages of Wins Journal – offered a different story.  For here, let’s just look at the numbers for the Thunder in the regular season, first round, and second round.

The Thunder were led in the regular season by Durant, Ibaka, and Sefolosha.  In the first round, all three were above average.  In the second round, though, Ibaka was below average.  And Durant – who was like LeBron James in the regular season – was merely very good in the second round.   In addition, Kendrick Perkins went from being below average to being extremely bad.

Are all of the changes we observe due to the loss of Westbrook? It’s possible that’s the story.  But then again, the samples in the playoffs are simply not large enough to draw firm conclusions (you might be sensing a recurring pattern to this analysis).

Conference Finals

For the first time in franchise history, the Grizzlies have advanced to the Western Conference finals.  Their opponents are the San Antonio Spurs, who are making their 9^th appearance in the conference finals since 1995.

Across the past few years, the Spurs have been led by Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili.  As we can see below, each of these players were again above average in the regular season.  In the post-season, though, each was above average in the first round and below average in the second round.

In contrast, Kawhi Leonard – who led the Spurs n WP48 in the regular season – has continued to be very productive throughout the playoffs.  Danny Green has also been above average across the regular season and both rounds of the playoffs.

How does the Spurs compare to what we have seen from the Grizzlies?

Below are the Wins Produced numbers for the Grizzlies in the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs.  If we focus strictly on the regular season we see that the Grizzlies were not as good as the Spurs.  But again, a similar story could be told about the Grizzlies’ first and second round opponents.  And the Grizzlies have advanced to the conference finals.

Part of why the Grizzlies have advanced is that players on the Clippers and Thunder didn’t perform as well as they did in the regular season.  But of course, part of the story is that some players on the Grizzlies have playedquite well.

As the above table illustrates, the following players were above average for the Grizzlies in the regular season, the first round, and the second round: Tony Allen, Mike Conley, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, and Quincy Pondexter.  These five players combined to produce nearly 41 of the team’s wins in the regular season.  And these five have combined to produce nearly all of the Grizzlies wins in the playoffs. So, one would suspect that this quintet is the key to the Grizzlies advancing to the NBA Finals.

Then again…small samples make prediction difficult. And that means, some of these five players may not perform as well against the Spurs.  Or someone else on the Grizzlies will play much better.  Or somebody on the Spurs will play well
(or not play well).

Final Thoughts

Let me close with three final thoughts:

First, I want to make a quick Rudy Gay comment.  Specifically, what Memphis has achieved since Rudy Gay has departed supports the notion that Gay was not really a key part of the Grizzlies’ past success. He certainly was never worth the contract he signed.  Scorers like Gay are frequently overvalued in the NBA and remarkably easy to replace.  We saw the same story when Allen Iverson left Philadelphia and Carmelo Anthony left Denver.  The key to building a winning team in the NBA is to acquire productive players.  And although many scorers (like LeBron James or Kevin Durant) are truly productive, there are scorers like Rudy Gay that simply do not produce many wins (despite what fans of these players might think).

Second, I want to repeat the following from Leonard Mlodinow

“…if one team is good enough to warrant beating another in 55% of its games, the weaker team will nevertheless win a 7-game series about 4 times out of 10.”

So although the Grizzlies were not quite as good as the Spurs in the regular season, it is certainly possible for Memphis to advance to the NBA Finals (and even win the NBA championship).  And if that happens, it will be interesting to see which players produce that outcome.

And finally, although I have made it clear that small samples make predicting difficult in the playoffs, I suspect Chip will insist I make some sort of prediction.  Given the primary readers in this forum, that prediction should be designed to make fans of the Grizzlies happy.

Sports fans – when faced with outcomes where randomness plays a role – tend to fall for superstitions.  And these superstitions often take the form of the sports fan trying to repeat whatever happened before something good happened in the past (i.e. wearing a lucky hat, sitting in a lucky seat, etc…).  With that in mind, I will make a pick that I think will clearly ensure success for Memphis.  So far I have picked against the Grizzlies and this team has kept on winning.  Consequently – in the interest of keeping the “good luck” going – I will pick the Spurs to win the conference finals.

And when the Grizzlies advance to the NBA Finals, I will also pick the Miami Heat.  Hope fans of this team remember all this when they are celebrating their first title in franchise history!

Settled on “defile”, because, well, it just seemed right. Denotes a very disrespectful defeat, doesn’t it?

Well, let’s pick seven items out of the inestimable galaxy of stuff that was terrible about the Grizzlies’ performance this day…

Thing one: No, it’s not Randolph’s invisibility. It was the way he expressed it. On one play in particular, second quarter perhaps, I [...]]]>

Yeah, verbs are great. i thought about “dismember” (probably the most accurate). Considered “eviscerate” (suitably gory), considered “vivisect” (maybe *too*gory).

Settled on “defile”, because, well, it just seemed right. Denotes a very disrespectful defeat, doesn’t it?

Well, let’s pick seven items out of the inestimable galaxy of stuff that was terrible about the Grizzlies’ performance this day…

Thing one: No, it’s not Randolph’s invisibility. It was the way he expressed it. On one play in particular, second quarter perhaps, I saw something VERY disturbing-an unpleasant exchange of words between TA and ZBo. Tony looked back after Zach made his remark, whatever it was, thought about barking back…and let it go. Sure, 1-8 is not gonna get it done-but expressing his frustration in the wrong way is what could damage this team’s chances even worse.

Thing two: Tony Allen running around like the proverbial headless chicken. Yes, we’ve seen him guard two dudes at once many times, and we’ll see it again-but trying to do it against two guys who are OWNING your team is a recipe for disaster. I was reminded of TA’s first season in Memphis when Hollins yanked him so quickly (if you’ll recall, that happened A LOT to him that year). Worst part of it is that this is not unfamiliar territory for him-he’s been there, and been all the way. He’s gonna feel a lot of responsibility for the loss, and I’m not going to say he shouldn’t.

Thing three: HEY A BRIGHT SPOT. Bayless had five assists and no TO’s.

Thing four: Well, that didn’t last long. Back into the darkness. The Grizzlies gave up 53% shooting to a team that doesn’t even need to shoot that well to win. It was not Timmy D-he went a slack 3-6 and took ZERO free throws-it was Green, Parker, and Neal who were responsible for the barrage of made baskets. Another way to say this is “boy I’d hate to be a Grizzlies backcourt player at practice tomorrow”.

Thing five: In other perimeter news, the Spurs went 14-29 from three. That’s one of those “when you let a team do this” situations. The Spurs, smart old cookies they are, suckered the Grizzlies into helping too actively (pick and roll, post entry, you name it) and found guys who could make them and took advantage of lazy closeouts by halfway-recovering Grizzly defenders.

Thing six: The Grizzlies won the rebounding, steals, and blocks columns. Wow, they must have had a good defensive game, huh? WRONG. When the ball is coming out of the basket every time, you did horribly on D.  Gasol didn’t play too horribly, and his decent game stands out like a sore thumb among what was the team’s worst defensive performance since game one of the Clippers series.

Thing seven: THIS IS NOT MEANT TO DENIGRATE PONDEXTER OR HIS PERFORMANCE AT ALL. HE IS A VERY IMPORTANT PLAYER ON A VERY GOOD GRIZZLIES TEAM. However, when he’s the leading scorer for your team in a WCF game, and it’s because of a very nice hot run in one quarter of said game, you’ve got a problem. In the playoffs, everyone has to raise his game-but the major cogs in the wheel have to bear the majority of the burden, and that didn’t happen. Randolph was invisible and frustrated (the Spurs had studied his recent games very well-they stopped him from getting deep position and doubled him smartly on the rare occasion when he did receive the ball in a viable spot on the floor.

Thing eight (yeah, my frustration runneth over for a quick second here): The Grizzlies have to remember how they acted when they closed out the Thunder a few days ago-no wanton celebration, just handshakes for each other and for the opposing team on a job well done. They acted like they  belonged where they were. Today, from the outset, they looked like the bright-eyed kids who had just gotten to play the old guys in Chucks at the playground and got taken to school AND out behind the woodshed. Confidence in their ability to recover from such a drubbing will be key.

Memphis is playing in their first Conference Finals in franchise history against a team that knows them as well as any other team in the league. Actually better since these [...]]]>

Western Conference Finals
Who: Memphis Grizzlies vs San Antonio Spurs
When: 2:30 PM CST
Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Records: Memphis (0-0), San Antonio (0-0)
Media: ABC, 92.9 FM, 680 AM
Forums: 3 Shades of Blue, Grizzlies Message Board

Memphis is playing in their first Conference Finals in franchise history against a team that knows them as well as any other team in the league. Actually better since these teams have played against each other twice in the playoff previously. Memphis enters the game with all the pressure on their backs but some well known people such as Charles Barkley and Magic Johnson believing this is their year. To make the NBA Finals the Grizzlies will need to play the best they have all season. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol are the focal performers, as the duo is averaging a combined 38 points and 17.2 rebounds over the course of the postseason. Mike Conley has combined with Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince for a devastating combination of defense and surprising offense. For Conley the surprise has been his effectiveness under pressure. For Allen and Prince however the surprise has been the sporaticness of their scoring. The bench has been hot and cold but in the playoffs the issue is not how well the bench has played but how rarely. As long as the Grizzlies starting five can stay on the court the team should be fine. Delving too deep into the bench could be disaster.

San Antonio is back to the conference finals for the 2nd year in a row after being pronounced dead after their first round loss to Memphis in 2011. While not the top seed they were the last two seasons as the Spurs coasted down the stretch to finish 2nd, The Spurs have had the easier route to the conference finals. The Lakers were dead men walking in the first round without Kobe Bryant. Golden State put a scare into the Spurs before Curry’s bum ankle and a revamped defense helped the Spurs finish the Warriors in 6 games. At first glance not much has changed from the Spurs team that lost to the Grizzlies but a closer look reveals many significant changes. Duncan is not the same player he was, Manu Ginobili isn’t as injured as he was and the supporting cast is stronger, taller and much better fits to the San Antonio system. However, Father Time is still creeping closer every day. The Spurs have dealt with injury issues for Manu and Parker while Duncan’s increased playoff workload always worries people.

Expected Starting Lineups:

Mike Conley vs Tony Parker
Conley: 40.2 MPG, 18.1 PPG, 39.9 FG%, 31.1 3pt%, 4.6 RPG, 7.3 APG, 2.1 SPG, 1.9 TOPG, 18.38 PER, .195 WP48
Parker: 36.0 MPG, 23.4 PPG, 47.6 FG%, 30.8 3pt%, 4.2 RPG, 6.1 APG, 1.0 SPG, 2.2 TOPG, 23.10 PER, .18 WP48 
 Tony Parker and Mike Conley have been compared since Conley entered the league.  Both players were given the starter’s job as rookies. Both struggled in that role as first. Parker was the whipping boy for Popovich but handled the abuse to become a strong leader. Conley was more protected by Hollins, at least publicly, but has also emerged into the clear cut team leader. These two players control the destiny of their teams as much as any of their bigger teammates. Parker is the gas that drives the old car. Conley is slightly less of the pusher than Parker but is still the player that makes things happen. This matchup is so important for both teams it is likely that they won’t be guarding each other full-time to prevent them from being worn out playing defense and not be able to run the offense effectively at the end of games. Conley is the up and coming challenger but Parker has the resume.  
Advantage: San Antonio

Tony Allen vs Danny Green
Allen: 28.8 PPG, 11.1 PPG, 45.2 FG%, 28.6 3pt%, 5.8 RPG, 1.6 APG, 2.3 SPG, 1.3 TOPG, 13.26 PER, .169 WP48
Green: 30.7 MPG, 10.0 PPG, 44.2 FG%, 41.7 3pt%, 4.1 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.7 TOPG, 14.19 PER, .189 WP48
Danny Green has developed from a fringe NBA player to a solid player with excellent defensive ability. Tony Allen has developed from a solid bench player to an All-NBA Defensive player. Neither player is exactly an offensive threat which means this matchup may exist more on paper than on the court. Allen will likely spend most of his tome guarding Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. Green will match up against Conley more than Allen as well. One major advantage Green has is a superior outside shot. Green is careful with the ball as well. Surprisingly Allen has been the more prolific overall scorer in the playoffs this year but the differences are not that great. Still Allen is an elite defender while Green is just very good. 
Advantage: Memphis

Tayshaun Prince vs Kawhi Leonard
Prince: 32.1 MPG, 7.5 PPG, 35.4 FG%, 25.0 3pt%, 4.5 RPG, 2.4 APG, 0.4 BPG, 0.5 SPG, 11.53 PER, .08 WP48
Leonard: 37.7 MPG, 13.7 PPG, 55.6 FG%, 34.8 3pt%, 8.4 RPG, 1.4 APG, 0.5 BPG, 1.5 SPG, 16.46 PER, .247 WP48
Tayshaun Prince was given the difficult job of replacing Rudy Gay in Memphis. It hasn’t gotten any easier in the playoffs despite the team’s success. Matt Barnes scored 30 points against Prince in last game and Kevin Durant averaged 30.8 PPG in the 2nd round but neither player’s individual performances were enough. Prince’s defense isn’t spectacular but technically excellent. Durant especially suffered at the end of games as the constant need to beat the properly played defensive position of Prince wore him out. Leonard is not the prolific scorer that either Barnes or Durant but he is a capable young player who has made his mark on the team this season and stepped up even more in the playoffs. Leonard will attack Prince with athleticism more than shooting skill. He has the ability to out-hustle and wear down Prince more than anyone Prince has faced in the playoffs so far. 
Advantage: San Antonio

Zach Randolph vs Tim Duncan
Randolph: 36.4 MPG, 19.7 PPG, 51.2 FG%, 9.3 RPG, 1.9 APG, 0.3 BPG, 0.7 SPG, 17.92 PER, .161 WP48
Duncan: 34.7 MPG, 18.7 PPG, 45.0 FG%, 9.6 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.0 BPG, 0.9 SPG, 24.45 PER, .23 WP48
Tim Duncan is a veteran’s veteran and not just because he was a veteran while most NBA players were still in grade school. He also has a little history against Randolph. In the 2011 series, Randolph dominated the Spurs so completely that Duncan re-dedicated himself to the game. He lost weight, improved his diet and worked on his strength and flexibility. The result is possibly the most remarkable season for s 37 year old in the NBA. Randolph was playing like an all-star until injuring his ankle in Miami. He literally limped into the playoffs. Then Randolph matched up against the team that dumped him for Blake Griffin and he was reborn. Randolph will need to play at a high level for Memphis to have any chance but he doesn’t have to carry the team as much as he did in 2011 for the Grizzlies to win.
Advantage: San Antonio

Marc Gasol vs Tiago Splitter
Gasol: 40.3 MPG, 18.3 PPG, 47.6 FG%, 7.9 RPG, 2.9 APG, 2.2 BPG, 0.9 SPG, 19.57 PER, .176 WP48
Splitter: 21.9 MPG, 5.9 PPG, 51.5 FG%, 4.0 RPG, 1.5 APG, 0.5 BPG, 1.1 SPG, 18.72 PER, .187 WP48
If Leonard has an advantage over Prince, it isn’t as potentially damaging as Gasol could be over Spitter could be. Gasol, the Defensive Player of the Year in the NBA, has unleashed a deadly shot from the free throw line to go with his excellent passing game to become a complete force in the middle for Memphis. His scoring is up over 4 points a game in the playoffs while still quarterbacking the defense. Splitter has not been as effective in the playoffs as he had been in the regular season as well. The Spurs may have to move Splitter over on Randolph hoping his height will affect Randolph offensively. Splitter has speed to combat Gasol’s strength but in the playoffs speed isn’t usually as important as the game slows down. 
Advantage: Memphis

Bench Players:

Keyon Dooling vs Corey Joseph
Dooling: 8.5 MPG, 2.2 PPG, 31.6 FG%, 33.3 3pt%, 0.4 APG, 0.0 SPG, 11.25 PER, 0.58 WP48
Joseph: 11.2 MPG, 3.9 PPG, 52.9 FG%, 28.6 3pt%, 1.8 APG, 0.3 SPG, 13.52 PER, 0.13 WP48
If the Spurs can force Memphis to their bench, something neither the Thunder nor Clippers could do consistently, then San Antonio could start to gain some clear advantages, especially at Point Guard. Dooling wasn’t playing in the NBA for most of the season after retiring before the season. Dooling has a decent outside shot but isn’t the floor general that Conley is by any means. Joseph has been growing in his understudy role and has developed into a reliable player in spurts. Joseph isn’t prepared to go 15 or more minutes but has been more than adequate in short shifts filling in for Parker. The same can not be said for Dooling.  
Advantage: San Antonio

Jerryd Bayless vs Gary Neal
Bayless: 19.1 MPG, 8.9 PPG, 41.9 FG%, 32.6 3pt%, 1.6 APG, 0.3 SPG, 13.51 PER, 0.96 WP48
Neal: 16.9 MPG, 5.9 PPG, 25.0 FG%, 25.0 3pt%, 0.7 APG, 0.3 SPG, 11.59 PER, 0.10 WP48
If Memphis has a bench player with a clear advantage over his opponent it is at SG. Bayless, while struggling in the playoffs some, has been a reliable contributor for the Grizzlies at both guard positions this season and their most consistent scorer off the bench. Bayless brings perimeter shooting when replacing Allen which helps spread the court. Capable of creating his own shot, if teams hunker down to stop the Grizzlies interior game, Bayless can punish teams from outside. Neal was a great perimeter shooter in the past but has lost his shot, especially in the playoffs and is not the threat he used to be.
Advantage: Memphis

Quincy Pondexter vs Manu Ginobili
Pondexter: 20.7 MPG, 6.5 PPG, 45.3 FG%, 42.9 3p%, 2.3 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.6 SPG, 10.98 PER, 0.13 WP48
Ginobili: 25.6 MPG, 12.1 PPG, 37.7 FG%, 33.3 3pt%, 4.2 RPG, 5.7 APG, 1.7 SPG, 19.05 PER, 0.163 WP48
If there has been a better 6th man over the last decade than Manu Ginobili someone will have to make a great argument to convince me. The problem for San Antonio is that 10 years is a long time and Manu is starting to show the wear and tear from that time on top. What Ginobili has lost shooting he more than makes up for in drawing fouls and defense. Ginobili can create fouls when driving as well as anyone and fouls are what the Grizzlies bigs need to avoid. Pondexter was on his way to breaking out this season before a knee injury slowed his season. In the playoffs he has regained some of that potential but it has been sporadic at best. 
Advantage: San Antonio

Darrell Arthur vs Matt Bonner
Arthur: 11.7 MPG, 3.8 PPG, 48.6 FG%, 0.0 3pt%,2.4 RPG, 0.2 BPG, 0.1 SPG, 11.89 PER, -0.54 WP48
Bonner: 15.9 MPG, 4.3 PPG, 51.7 FG%, 57.1 3pt%, 2.2 RPG, 0.3 BPG, 0.4 SPG, 11.88 PER, 0.80 WP48
Two years ago Darrell Arthur was a momentum changer coming off the bench. That was before a torn achilles and various other injuries deterred his development. Arthur has shown flashes of that player but not consistently enough. Arthur’s speed and athleticism punished the Spurs when Bonner tried to guard him in the past. It will be interesting to see if Arthur can regain some of his former magic this time around. Bonner is one of the best perimeter shooters in the league and has sneaky smarts to get to the rim when defenders overplay him but, at 33, those moments aren’t as frequent as they were two years ago. Randolph and Gasol will struggle to guard Bonner on the perimeter so don’t be surprised to see him replacing Splitter early and often in an attempt to force one of the Grizzlies big men to the bench. 
Advantage: San Antonio

Ed Davis vs Boris Diaw
Davis: 5.3 MPG, 1.3 PPG, 50.0 FG%, 0.0 3pt%, 1.3 RPG, 0.0 BPG, 17.82 PER, .216 WP48
Diaw: 17.8 MPG, 4.0 PPG, 47.4 FG%, 50.0 3pt%, 3.0 RPG, 0.2 BPG, 11.96 PER, .074 WP48
Davis was supposed to be the secret steal of the Rudy Gay trade but has struggled to find a place in the Grizzlies rotation so far. His range is limited to around the basket and his FT shooting is a liability. Thin for an interior player, Davis has struggled to find even moments to get on the court in the playoffs but should be able to maneuver inside against Diaw and could be effective if fouls are a problem for the starting bigs. Diaw is a smart player who knows how to use his skills to his advantage in games. Davis was a shot blocker in the regular season and could affect Diaw if he looks to shoot but Diaw knows that isn’t his game. Diaw’s biggest asset is against small ball lineups but that doesn’t expect to be something the Grizzlies do a lot in this series. Diaw can hit the long ball if not guarded however. 
Advantage: San Antonio

Deep Bench:
Memphis - If Memphis goes to their deep bench then there are serious problems occurring for the Grizzlies. Jon Leuer has had his moments but is too soft to handle real NBA duty yet. Tony Wroten is a promising rookie who could see the court for a defensive boost but has no outside shot yet and often loses control when driving into the lane not to mention a less than stellar FT shot. Austin Daye has a great outside shot but isn’t strong defensively and hasn’t gained Hollins faith.

San Antonio - The Spurs bench all have Popovich’s faith even when not playing for long stretches. DeJuan Blair is a powerful but undersized big man. Nando de Colo is a fine ball-handler who needs some maturation. Patty Mills is a streak shooter who can punish teams if he is on but doesn’t realize when he isn’t. Mills likely would get court time ahead of de Colo despite the latter’s superior court sense due to his experience in the league.

Advantage: San Antonio

What [...]]]>

When the Memphis Grizzlies shocked the basketball world and decided to cut ties with their leading scorer and highest-paid player in Rudy Gay, a large faction of fans and analysts considered it to be a death sentence to their championship aspirations. Not many people thought the team could replace Rudy Gay’s scoring output, as inefficient as it may have been, and even fewer thought that they would manhandle Kevin Durant’s Oklahoma City Thunder to reach the Western Conference Finals.

What makes the Grizzlies upsurge even more impressive is that they have done it all without any meaningful contribution from the centerpiece of the trade, Ed Davis — at least not yet.

Ed Davis seems to be the forgotten man on Coach Lionel Hollins’ bench. Coming over from Toronto as an efficient, defensive-minded big man, Davis was expected to fit right in with the Grizzlies. After playing just over 15 minutes in his 36 games with Memphis thought with very little to show, however, Coach Hollins has opted to look elsewhere for scoring, rebounding, and shot-blocking.

Davis played over 12 minutes in his first career playoff game but has had a hard time getting off the bench ever since. In fact, Davis played 3 total minutes in the entire second-round series against Oklahoma City. Even little-used point guard Keyon Dooling, who had not appeared in a professional basketball game all year before signing with the Grizzlies, has been relied on more than Davis.

(Photo by Mark Runyon)

That may be primed to change, though, when the Grizzlies take on the San Antonio Spurs for the rights to represent the Western Conference in the 2013 NBA Finals. While the Clippers and Thunder presented poor match-ups for Davis, the Grizzlies are almost certain to need his size if they want to defeat this deep, veteran Spurs team. Neither Zach Randolph, nor Marc Gasol is going to be able to slow down Tim Duncan, the “Big Fundamental” himself, on their own. Whether it’s foul trouble or a much-needed breather, Davis could be called upon at some point.

(Photo by Nikki Boertman/Commercial Appeal)

How Davis performs under pressure may ultimately decide the Grizzlies fate. If he is able to provide the team with staunch defense, gritty rebounding, and a few timely buckets, the odds will be in Memphis’s favor. Zach Randolph will be able to focus on what he does best, scoring the basketball, and Marc Gasol won’t have to wear himself out on just one end of the court.

While the Grizzlies’ trade of Rudy Gay is looking better and better with each win, Ed Davis has a chance to make it look even more so by contributing to a Memphis Grizzlies’ championship run. The future of Ed Davis is bright for the forgotten man on the bench, but if given the chance he might prove that the future is now.

If the Grizzlies are to defeat Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs and, ultimately, battle for the NBA championship, Ed Davis is going to have to play a role sooner rather than later.

*again allows phrase to echo around in his head for a second*

Ok, I’m back.

There have been a ton of great games by Grizzlies players in these playoffs thus far, and a look at some stats provides a good look at which players have been going which direction as things progress.

Let’s play schoolteacher and give out some grades.

Marc Gasol: There’s just no way not to give this guy an A+++++++, is there?

Scoring, [...]]]>

The Western Conference Finals.

*again allows phrase to echo around in his head for a second*

Ok, I’m back.

There have been a ton of great games by Grizzlies players in these playoffs thus far, and a look at some stats provides a good look at which players have been going which direction as things progress.

Let’s play schoolteacher and give out some grades.

Marc Gasol: There’s just no way not to give this guy an A+++++++, is there?

Scoring, regular season: 14.1 ppg

Clippers series: 17.3

Thunder series: 19.4

Sure, his minutes have increased by over ten percent, so we’d expect to see  a slight uptick. Another aspect of it, though, and the aspect that speaks the most highly of Gasol’s play (and Hollins’ coaching) is that in the playoffs thus far, Gasol has had only peachily favorable matchups starter-wise-Deandre Jordan and Kendrick Perkins are weak links, and the Grizzlies fully capitalized on that. Defensively, he’s shown why he won DPOY, and it hasn’t been about stats. Sure, he rebounds and blocks shots (at around the same pace in postseason as in regular season), but helping at the top of the key against Paul while still darting back to minimize the lob factor was huge for the Grizzlies against LAC.

A+++++

Zach Randolph: The good: he’s averaging over five points more per game in only two or so more MPG, and his shot attempts have stayed reasonably static, particularly in proportion to his increase in minutes. He’s gone from a paltry 42% on FG’s in April to 51% in the postseason thus far, which is part of the reason for the rise in scoring. Best part, however, is that his free throw attempts have gone up significantly, from only 3.9 in the regular season to 6.4 in the postseason. The Grizzlies’ repeated parades to the FT line against the Clippers were a large part of the team’s win in the series, and ZBo had a good series in terms of FTA’s against the Thunder as well, capped by a lovely 12-16 effort in the clinching game. The not so good? His rebounding is solid, but will need to stay solid and go up as the pressure increases. The lesser results on the boards are also likely linked to the perhaps more dire “not good” about ZBo-that ankle. Sure, it seems fine now, but it’s vulnerable.

A-

Mike Conley: Well, where to start. He hasn’t caved yet under the weight of more national media attention (pressure??!?) than he’s faced since at least the Final Four, maybe ever.

It’s not all sweetness and light, but the thing that stands out is that his minutes have increased like any starter’s will on a playoff team, from 34.5 in the regular season to 38.5 in the postseason…but his turnovers have decreased by around 25% (!!!) while his assists have gone up by about the same percentage. That, fellow Griz fans, is flat-out amazing.

His shooting percentage has not exactly gone through the roof-in fact it’s dropped-but the fact that his FT trips have basically DOUBLED over the regular season is more than enough to make up for it.

Defensively, stats aside, it’s hard not to look at his series vs. Chris Paul and the Clippers as a quantum moment for Conley. The confidence he displayed built on itself as the series went on, and CP3′s ability to get to the elbow area and whizz back and forth until someone was open decreased concomitantly. Of course, it helped that the Grizzlies stopped leaving guys like Butler and Trash Can Man Barnes open in the corners so much…because they trusted Conley and Gasol to handle Paul entering the lane..wait, there’s a joke about a chicken and an egg around here somewhere, just gotta find it…

A, but the FG % needs to rise. Believe it or not, that could happen against Parker. Time will tell.

Tony Allen: The Grindfather has filled his role, and, well, that’s why the Grizzlies will pay him *pretty much* whatever he wants this summer. It’d be pretty easy to look at shots like that three early in game five against OKC and think that “Tony Allen out of the offensive box” has happened more than anyone might prefer, but when he winds up with the ball on the wing with sub-10 on the 24, it’s just not his fault. Guys still help off him, but it’s worked out ok, as the team has started using him for cutting more than in the past and it’s worked wonderfully. A couple times in the OKC series we saw TA straight-up guard two guys at once, and that’s just joy to watch. The phrase “generational defensive specialist” is just not an overstatement at this point.

A

Tayshaun Prince: Last but not least, the newest member of the band…but as I’ve told many people many times, it just seems like he should have been here for years, doesn’t it? No, he’s not quite the player who won in 2004, but that dunk in game five should have removed any doubt that he’s still able to use his athletic ability in addition to his amazing basketball IQ and court smarts. His shooting has been, well, not stellar-but his defense on Durant was more than competent and kept the liabilities on the offensive side of his ledger from being overbearing. Just a great fit for the Grizzlies, and if that jumper can fall just a bit more frequently, his grade could increase.

B+

And now, the bench.

Quincy Pondexter: Consistency-that’s what Hollins wants from Pondexter, and  that’s what he’s gotten out of him. Pondexter’s minutes have been virtually the same in the postseason as in the regular season, and he’s done the same with them. It’s testament to his abilities and the coaching staff’s use of assets that he’s been able to be consistent, as he’s been asked to guard three positions regularly, with even a few minutes at a “PF” position during the teeniest of small-ball scenarios. He’ll likely face Leonard, Neal, Green, potentially even Ginobli in the Spurs series, and his growth into the Grizzlies next D-and-3 guy will be tested.

Grade: A. Solid D and never goes outside the box.

Jerryd Bayless: The new OJ. It went around during the first round, when his minutes dipped, that he was a bit mumbly-grumbly about it…but he’s gotta know that a meager three-minute drop is to be expected, even for a player who’s been the first guard off the bench during a majority of games over the regular season. His shooting percentage has dropped in the postseason, and that’s the reason he’ll get a bit more harshly treated grade-wise. He’s got to look for his shot, as “bench gunner” is the role he’ll need to fill against the Spurs, and he’s really yet to show he’s ready to  take on that duty thus far.

C

Darrell Arthur: The enigma. Should anyone run into the DA of 2011 vintage, please have him return to the team. The pectoral tear, the achilles tear, and the other injuries he’s endured over his still-young career seem to have taken their toll on his rebounding ability, which was never the first focus of his game anyway. His crazy good pick and roll coverage on the perimeter and that nasty pick-and-pop jumper from the elbow will need to continue to be his calling cards, and he’ll get his chance-his familiarity with the Spurs’ library of Parker pick plays will serve him well against the Spurs, although his decrease in court time during the playoffs will likely continue as Hollins leans on Zbo and Gasol more heavily.

B-

Keyon Dooling: Not much to say, as his game has been rather nondescript vintage Dooling. He’s managed to shake off the rust that was obviously on his gears when he first arrived, and his energy on defense has been good-but it’s not likely that he’ll see many regular minutes except for reason of foul trouble/tweaked ankle/etc.

B

Ed Davis, Austin Daye, Tony Wroten, Jon Leuer, Donte Greene, Willie Reed: No, I don’t know why Davis isn’t playing more either, so don’t bother asking. His length on D could help the Grizzlies guard Splitter for short stretches, but Arthur is FAR more suited to guard Bonner due to his perimeter quickness. Would not be radically surprising to see Wroten get some minutes if Bayless falters, as his quickness will help him against Parker (although Parker’s vet moves will put Wroten’s shoes in concrete) on both ends.

Grade: incomplete.

This series is going to be an absolute delight for any NBA fan, and there will be blood. And defense. And ZERO bluffing.

Can’t wait.

Find Popovich in a good mood, however, and he will likely admit that everything he and general manager R.C. Buford have built comes down to two [...]]]>

Ask Gregg Popovich the secrets to the San Antonio Spurs sustained success on any given day and you’re likely to get one of two answers. On most days Popovich will simply flash that condescending gaze, staring daggers into your soul until you find yourself apologizing for wasting his time with such a stupid question.

Find Popovich in a good mood, however, and he will likely admit that everything he and general manager R.C. Buford have built comes down to two important things—luck, and not screwing things up.

(Photo Bob Owen/San Antonio Express-News)

It was luck to have landed the top pick in the right draft and selecting Tim Duncan. There was luck in finding some pieces around them, and beyond that, it’s been a matter of simply not screwing things up (harder than it sounds). For an example of just how difficult it can be, you can read Andrew Sharp’s article on Grantland today.

On Sunday, Popovich and the Spurs will square off against their polar opposites. If the San Antonio Spurs are the NBA’s model franchise, the Memphis Grizzlies are the greatest worst assembled team in NBA history.

The Memphis Grizzlies are, perhaps, the luckiest team in the NBA right now, which fits perfectly into the first part of Popovich’s formula to success. It’s the “don’t screw up” part that the Grizzlies astonishingly seem to ignore with almost no negative repercussions. The Memphis Grizzlies have screwed up, regularly, repeatedly, and royally.

And yet no one can deny how fun and legitimately imposing these Grizzlies are as we get ready for the Western Conference Finals.

To start with, the Grizzlies core of Mike Conley, Tony Allen, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol was created from a series of inexplicably horrible-to-laughable moves that, somehow, ALL MANAGED TO WORK OUT FOR THE BEST DESPITE LOGIC AND EVERYONE’S BELIEFS TO THE CONTRARY!!!

(Photo by Nikki Boertman/Commercial Appeal)

Even one of their earliest terrible trades, sending a pick to Detroit that would become the no. 2 overall pick in what would eventually be known as the Miami Heat draft, worked out in that it saved the Grizzlies the pain of drafting Darko Milicic.

(The Grizzlies would eventually trade Darko to the Knicks for Quentin Richardson, who they then flipped for Zach Randolph, meaning….EVEN SOMETHING AS HORRIBLE AS ACQUIRING DARKO MILIC WORKED OUT FOR THE GRIZZLIES!)

From 2008 through today the Grizzlies have made some of the more puzzling moves in the NBA, and yet every single one of them has led them here, to the Western Conference Finals.

The Gasol(s) Trade

 Frame your arguments however you’d like in the comments sections or on Twitter (and I hope you do), but no amount of hindsight can hide that, at the time, trading Pau Gasol to the Lakers in exchange for scraps was amongst the most lopsided trades in NBA history.

Yes, the Grizzlies were in a position where trading Pau Gasol was a must, but he was a franchise-quality big man who immediately transformed the Lakers into NBA champions (after failing in the NBA Finals his first half season there, of course). In exchange the Grizzlies eventually received cap space in Kwame Brown’s expiring contract, Javaris Crittenton, and two late first round draft picks, as well as the rights to Marc Gasol.

Pau and the Lakers have since faded, and Marc is the 2013 Defensive Player of the Year and in contention for mantle of game’s best big man. But absolutely no one knew Marc Gasol would develop into THIS, and anyone who would tell you otherwise is a liar.

(Photo by Mike Brown/Commercial Appeal)

In an interview with Yahoo!’s Adrian Wojnarowski, Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley referred to the Grizzlies assets as cap space. Though he didn’t regret the trade, he did wonder if his team got the best value possible:

“I don’t know if I got the most value,” Heisley confessed. “Maybe our people should’ve shopped (Gasol) more and maybe we would’ve gotten more, done a better deal. Maybe Chris did call every team in the league. I don’t think he did, but maybe he should’ve…”

Heisley didn’t mention Marc Gasol in the interview, no one did. The last time most people saw the younger Gasol was as a pudgy high school center with limited prospects.

It’s okay to admit that, even with the way things turned out, this was a bad trade turned positive purely by fortune in the same way that Popovich and Buford admit that finding Manu Ginobili had little to do with their scouting staff and everything to do with luck. As Popovich has said repeatedly, if they knew how things would turn out, they wouldn’t have waited so long to take him.

The Zach Randolph Trade

With the cap space vacated by the Pau Gasol trade, the Grizzlies swung a deal to acquire Zach Randolph, solidifying what would eventually be the Grizzlies devastating frontline. But at the time Randolph was a cautionary tale, though admittedly a talented one. Nothing in his stops in Portland, New York, or Los Angeles revealed any signs of hope, and certainly no rational basketball mind would have traded Pau Gasol for Randolph straight-up, which is what appeared to be the case at the time.

But few, even amongst Memphis fans, could have predicted the connection the city would have with Randolph and how that would change him. Though I have no proof, I feel confident in saying that Randolph in a Grizzlies uniform doesn’t work in Vancouver—which as a side note, was another Grizzlies move widely panned (moving from Vancouver to NBA’s smallest market) that worked out wonderfully for the NBA (see how these moves are all connected?). Randolph, along with Tony Allen, embraced Memphis’ blue collar work ethic, which became the culture by which this team operates.

It is, perhaps, the only location in the NBA where this roster could thrive, and that stands as a testament to the city and its wonderful fans.

The Mike Conley extension

Mike Conley was the no. 4 overall pick in the draft, so there were some expectations in place for him to succeed. But headed to the end of his rookie contract Conley was seriously underperforming relative to those expectations.

When the Memphis Grizzlies announced Conley’s contract extension it prompted CBS blogger and huge Grizzlies enthusiast Matt Moore to write a column with the headline: GRIZZLIES COMMIT FRANCHISE SUICIDE, EXTEND CONLEY. The post has since been removed, but the sentiment was the same everywhere and I’ll refer you to Kelly Dwyer’s post over at Yahoo!’s Ball Don’t Lie, who touches on Moore’s column:

“Bidding against absolutely nobody, they signed Conley to a deal that will have him making eight figures over the last couple years of its existence. That alone should make your hair stand on end. And as Moore pointed out, there is absolutely nothing in Conley’s game nor at-best potential that should allow for anyone to think that he should even approach an average salary, something that would pay him about half of what he’s due to make in a few years.”

That albatross of a contract appears to be a bargain now, and that Conley against Tony Parker no longer seems like an overwhelming mismatch speaks of how much Conley has grown since receiving his contract. And if the Grizzlies had faith in anything, perhaps it was his work ethic and the team’s culture, but those aren’t tangible qualities that would have had them competing with suitors for Conley at that price.

And the rest of the horrible, terrible, no good, very bad decisions…

Every front office makes a mistake or two, or three. Often times just one of these can cripple a franchise for years to come. And yet, the Grizzlies have made some of the most questionable moves this side of David Kahn. And they’ve thrived.

Trading Kevin Love for O.J. Mayo (which admittedly looks a lot worse now than it did then), picking Hasheem Thabeet with the no. 2 overall pick in a draft with James Harden, Ricky Rubio, and Stephen Curry still available (if it’s any consolation, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded James Harden to the Houston Rockets at the beginning of the season, making it two teams that have kept Thabeet over Harden).

Teams that pass up or trade even one franchise player—and from the looks of it Curry and Harden appear to be as much while Rubio looks to be, at the very least, special—aren’t supposed to contend for championships. They’re supposed to turn into the Milwaukee Bucks of the world, trading the draft rights to Dirk Nowitzki for rotation filler and wondering the desert of mediocrity for the next decade as penance.

And yet here are the Grizzlies in spite of all this. Hell, maybe even because of it. Maybe there’s something to an island of misfit toys that no one else wanted finding sanctity in each other and in a city the NBA underestimated.

Rubio and love never made the playoffs while Harden was eliminated in the first round by the team that had Thabeet. Stephen Curry and the Warriors were eliminated by the very Spurs the Grizzlies will be playing, coached by a man who publicly called into question the sanity of the trade that ignited everything the Grizzlies have built today. A trade that helped Memphis upset these Spurs just two years earlier in the first round.

I’m not sure what to make of this other than great things often come from humble beginnings. Going back to 2008, the Memphis rebuilding plan made about as much sense as investing in lottery tickets, right down to the odds for success.

And yet, here are your Memphis Grizzlies, gritting and grinding and generally living life as the greatest team that was ever poorly constructed. Everyone questioned how they got here, but no one denies that they’ve arrived.

Jesse Blanchard writes for Project Spurs and ESPN San Antonio. You can find him on Twitter at @blanchardJRB.